Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Why Would You Want to Lower Your Risk?

There is something unsettling about the notion of reducing my risk for a disease or a disaster. Risk is a relative term that only applies to groups. If all is held equal in a group, changing one element can increase or decrease overall risk for the group, but NOT the individuals who make up the group.



What's the point in lowering the risk of cancer by 5% for a group? If there are one thousand people in the group, that change would mean better odds for 50 people. A major problem is identifying which fifty people. Keep in mind that this is true only when every member in the group is identical to the others. Something as simple as a minor accident can change a person such that he/she no longer possesses the characteristics of the group.



If I do something to reduce my personal risk factors (eating better, for example) and the other group members do something to increase their risk (start smoking?), the group risk goes up, but mine goes down, especially if I don't start smoking.



There is an old saying about how we can never step in the same stream twice. More accurately, we can never step in the same stream once. Nothing is static and all is variable.



The concept of risk factors is bogus and should be eliminated from health discussions.

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